Some analysts believe that bitcoin is able to significantly undermine the dollar and the Federal Reserve by 2021. This anonymous analyst said one of the Fed’s computer experts online. He worked in the department of the Federal Reserve in San Francisco and was given the task to evaluate the potential threat cryptocurrency for the dollar and the Fed.
Based on its analysis, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is a huge threat to the dollar and world fiat monetary system controlled by central banks. He’s writing:
We received instructions to simulate a situation in which from the standpoint of developing bitcoin currency rises to the status of major currencies. Besides the usual in such cases, modeling and forecasts, we have the task to assess the possible volumes of cash flows, changes in interest rates, baskets of derivative securities, insurance risks and global effects on monetary policy and the conclusion of commercial transactions. The result of the simulation turned out amazing .
Even if the average penetration rate in the economic reality and unstable growth rate, bitcoin has a very noticeable effect on the results of modeling, forecasting and, ultimately, understanding monetary decision-making regarding monetary policy.
We came to the conclusion that such a situation may result in the fact that as a result of the Fed and the US government will lose a significant part of their control over monetary circulation.
Even under the most optimistic (the Fed) scenarios where being based on the current pace of implementation of Bitcoin, the estimated tipping point falls on the 2021-2026 year. It was at this time the role of the dollar as the primary backup tool is completely undermined and usurped Bitcoin, and the Fed will lose its status as the main body governing global monetary policy.
These simulation results were independently verified by other entities, then I introduced them to the Fed’s Board of Directors. byly Council members are greatly concerned with the results and for three days carefully studied all the details provided by the report and interviewed staff involved in the study. It should be noted that unlike elected politicians, director of the Federal Reserve – are highly skilled professionals that can understand the essence of what is happening, and draw appropriate conclusions.
Interestingly, according to the same anonymous source, “highly qualified” from the Fed still made their own conclusions from this report, and did everything possible to ensure that it is in any case not become known to the public:
Three weeks after the submission of the report, my research group has been disbanded, and I was transferred to a tiny regional branch of the Federal Reserve, where there is virtually no issues and resources for further research. A similar fate befell the other members of our team – so most of us are actively trying to find work outside the system.
At the same time, the strict non-disclosure agreements make it impossible to talk about their results publicly for us. Personally, I try to go to work in industry, in order to be closer to the subject cryptocurrency as the main research interest.
For me it is clear that the arrival of Bitcoin is fundamentally changing the way economists must consider the monetary model and simulate the economy. Specifically, central banks are afraid, afraid of the government, and they would rather bury the truth, suppressing the publication of specialized studies on the scale of the future effects of cryptocurrency and sending these directly to our reports in the archive.
Former presidential candidate Ron Paul has also previously talked about the possibility of the dollar offset Bitcoin. He said that if a lot of people started to use bitcoin, he would have gone down in history as the currency, which destroyed the dollar. But Paul warned that “the government demand a monopoly on money and credit. They do not give up so easy. The process of the dollar offset will be very painful. ”
It seems that the recent events have confirmed these fears. Central banks all closely eyeing the progress cryptocurrency, and engaged in a detailed study and modeling of this phenomenon. If their modeling shows that cryptocurrency represent an existential threat to their monopoly (as reported by an anonymous source), the question arises – to what steps they will resort to neutralize this threat?